Analyzing Gross Enrollment Rates (GER) in Afghanistan's Public Schools (2021): A Gendered and Provincial Perspective
This analysis examines the Gross Enrollment Rate (GER) for boys and girls in Afghanistan's public schools, comparing enrollment figures with the estimated school-age population.
One of the initial challenges in this comparison was the absence of population data specifically categorized by the official school-age range of 7–18 years. The available demographic data was instead organized into broader five-year age groups: 5–9, 10–14, and 15–19. To better approximate the school-age population, an adjustment was made to the 5–9 age group. While this modification lacks a rigorous statistical basis, it provides a more relevant estimate.
The adjustment involved estimating the population for ages 7, 8, and 9 by dividing the total population of the 5–9 age group by five—assuming a uniform distribution—and multiplying it by three. Ages 5 and 6 were excluded based on the assumption that early school entry is relatively uncommon in Afghanistan due to infrastructural limitations and social norms. The 10–14 and 15–19 age groups remained unchanged, as they largely represent the school-age population, and students, particularly in conflict-affected or rural areas, are more likely to remain in school beyond the age of 18.
The population data used in this analysis comes from the 2021 dataset produced by the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), which is currently the only available provincial-level source providing disaggregated figures by age and gender in Afghanistan. This dataset serves as a critical reference point for analyzing educational access and enrollment trends across the country.
What is GER?
The Gross Enrollment Rate (GER) is defined by UNESCO's UIS as:
Total enrollment in a specific level of education, regardless of age, expressed as a percentage of the eligible official school-age population corresponding to the same level of education in a given school year.
A GER exceeding 100% typically indicates that children outside the official school-age range—due to early entry, late entry, or grade repetition—are enrolled in school.
Nangarhar: A Case of Disrupted Normalcy
The situation in Nangarhar Province highlights the complexity and irregularity of enrollment patterns in Afghanistan:
Population Aged 7–18 (2021):
Females: 371,152
Males: 397,493
Total: 768,645
Total Enrollment in Public Schools (2021):
Girls: 273,097
Boys: 509,735
Total: 782,832
From these figures, we calculate:
GER for Boys: (509,735 / 397,493) × 100 ≈ 128.3%
GER for Girls: (273,097 / 371,152) × 100 ≈ 73.6%
Overall GER: (782,832 / 768,645) × 100 ≈ 101.8%
These figures reveal two important insights: boys' enrollment exceeds their school-age population, resulting in a GER well above 100%, while girls' enrollment remains significantly below their demographic proportion.
Interpreting the Data: Age Irregularities and Structural Disruption
This discrepancy is not a statistical error but rather a reflection of structural disruptions in education. In Afghanistan, several factors contribute to the breakdown of age-based enrollment norms:
Delayed and Irregular School Entry: Due to prolonged conflict, poverty, and displacement, many children start school well after the official age of 7. A 9-year-old may enter Grade 1, while a 17-year-old might resume Grade 6 after years away due to war or migration.
Grade Repetition and Interrupted Schooling: The lack of a robust student tracking and promotion system often results in repetition or cycles of dropout and re-entry. This leads to high enrollment in lower grades by students older than the official age bracket.
Access Inequality and Infrastructure Gaps: Many rural areas lack nearby schools—especially at the secondary level for girls—forcing students to wait, relocate, or drop out entirely. As of 2021, over 3 million Afghan children were out of school, with 60% being girls, primarily in provinces with poor school infrastructure and Taliban influence.
Weak Civil Registration System: Afghanistan’s incomplete birth registration system means age data are often estimated, complicating precise age-based GER calculations. Children without official birth records may be enrolled based on visual age assessments or family statements.
Post-Conflict Educational Catch-Up: In areas where the Taliban previously restricted girls’ education, many girls—now exceeding the school age—are returning to school following recent openings at the primary level. This results in unusually high enrollments of over-age students in lower grades.
Rethinking GER in Afghanistan
In many countries, a GER above 100% might indicate inefficiencies in progression or excessive repetition. However, in Afghanistan, it often reflects a population overcoming systemic barriers—entering school late, persisting through insecurity, or rejoining after years of exclusion. These patterns should not be viewed solely as administrative anomalies but as evidence of resilience amid educational disruption.
Conclusion
While GER remains a widely accepted metric for assessing educational coverage, its interpretation in Afghanistan requires careful contextualization. The case of Nangarhar—and others like it—demonstrates that GER values over 100% are not merely statistical outliers but indicators of broader social and political realities. Future analyses must consider these distortions, ensuring that both access and age-appropriate learning pathways are restored, particularly for girls and marginalized communities.
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